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2014 US Pecan Production Estimate

2014 US Pecan Production Estimate

What does this mean to the “casual” pecan grower, which makes up 1/3rd of total pecan production in the US? That depends where you are at, and many different variables. 256 Million lbs is just under the average annual yield over the past 7 years. Average doesn’t sound “bad”, but this year was forecasted to be an on-year cycle. Which makes this on-year forecast the worst on-year number in many years.

The blame can be largely pointed at last years, 2013 late season rains and scab issues. Lenny Wells, Associate Professor and Extension Horticulture Specialist for Pecans at the University of Georgia explain it beautifully. “Too much rain and disease is not just bad for the year it happens, it’s bad for the next year, too. All of that disease pressure, all of those cloudy conditions and some late-season pressure from some insect pests put a lot of stress on those trees at the wrong time,” Wells said. “That generally doesn’t bode too well for the following year.”

Time will tell what your pecan trees will ultimately yield. You can generally expect to have a similar yield as last year, which could be good, but not as good as it should be. Having been in the industry for many years I have found the estimate is always off some and feel the estimate is a little underestimated.

Here are the official estimates, divided up by states for 2014/2015. The bottom chart is the history of estimates compared to the final Pecan yield numbers.

 

US Pecan Production

Alabama 9.0 mil.lbs.
Arizona 18.0 mil. lbs.
Arkansas 3.0 mil.lbs.
California 4.0 mil.lbs.
Florida 1.0 mil. lbs.
Georgia 65.0 mil. lbs.
Kansas 2.0 mil.lbs.
Louisiana 16.0 mil. lbs.
Mississippi 1.0 mil. lbs.
Missouri 1.0 mil. lbs.
New Mexico 55.0 mil. lbs.
North Carolina 0.5 mil.lbs.
Oklahoma 15.0 mil. lbs.
South Carolina 0.5 mil.lbs.
Texas 65.0 mil. lbs.
U.S. TOTAL 256 mil.lbs.

 

Crop Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tri State Estimate 298 205 296 275 246 265 222 256
USDA Final 387 202 302 294 270 303 220* ?

*Estimate

Bag-A-Nut wishes that your trees have an on-year! A year where we all have a small, but important part in the 2014/2015 pecan yield.

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